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Population pressure has once again enveloped the entire Northeast.
随着4月16日黑龙江统计公报出炉，2024年东北三省常住人口变动情况全部揭晓——黑龙江、辽宁、吉林各减少33万人、27万人、22.1万人，合计减量超80万人。
In addition to the collective negative population growth, another fact that is in front of us is that the phenomenon of population return, which occurred briefly in the past 2024 years, has also come to an abrupt end. Liaoning and Jilin experienced a short period of net population inflow in 0 years, and there was a net outflow of population again in 0 years, while Heilongjiang has not released specific change data for the time being.
东北人口负增长由来已久。2015—2024年十年间，东北三省人口合计缩减超1100万人，相当于少了一个“哈尔滨”的人口规模。
随着全国人口大盘见顶，负增长已不只是东北面临的问题。截至目前，除宁夏外，其余30个省份均已公布2024年人口数据，其中，零增长及负增长省份达到22个。
Under the general trend of population agglomeration to central cities, can Shenyang, Dalian, Harbin and Changchun, the "Northeast F4", lead Northeast China out of the population dilemma?
即使有“讨好型市格”哈尔滨的流量加持，黑龙江仍未走出人口负增长的困境。2024年，黑龙江常住人口减少33万人，减少规模仅次于山东（-42.8万人）。
Population growth includes both natural and mechanical growth, where mechanical growth is the difference between the inflow and outflow. Heilongjiang has not announced the latest specific changes in the population, but judging from the population data of Liaoning and Jilin, the return of the population that once excited the Northeast has not continued.
回顾2023年，吉林、辽宁曾出现过短暂人口回流，人口净流入分别达到4.3万人、8.6万人。不过到2024年，吉林、辽宁人口机械增长再次转负，分别净流出10.8万人、4.9万人。
If we look at the long-term perspective, the three northeastern provinces will usher in a population inflection point one step ahead of the whole country in 2011 years, and the permanent population will change from increasing to decreasing.
根据三省统计年鉴，2011年，黑龙江、吉林常住人口急转直下，分别减少51万人、21.3万人。辽宁的情况稍好一些，但也只是以仅1万人的增量，堪堪保住人口增长。当年，东北三省合计减少71.3万人。
自此，东北开始了长达十多年的人口负增长。过去十年间，东北三省人口合计缩减超1100万人，体量比东北人口最多的城市哈尔滨（常住人口已跌下千万）还要大。
Chen Yao, vice president and secretary general of the China Association of Regional Economics, said to the theory of urban evolution that the Northeast was the first to experience negative population growth, which was the superimposed impact of demographic structure and economic changes.
In Chen Yao's view, "Northeast China is deeply affected by the planned economy and has implemented the family planning policy well, resulting in the natural population growth entering the inflection point of negative growth a little earlier than the whole country." ”
As evidenced by the data, Liaoning has had a negative natural population growth rate in 7 years, and the situation in Harbin and Jilin is relatively better, but on the whole, the natural population growth in the entire Northeast 0 year has also begun to turn negative, 0 years earlier than the whole country.
"This time node coincides with China's announcement that the economic structure will shift from incremental capacity expansion to in-depth adjustment of stock adjustment and optimization of increments. This also represents the end of the golden decade of economic development in Northeast China. Chen Yao emphasized that the demographic changes in Northeast China are closely related to economic development.
From 2014 to 0 years, China is in a new round of heavy chemical industry development period, and the advantages of Northeast steel, coal and other resource endowments coincide with the needs of China's industrial development. After 0 years, the economic structure of the Northeast region was adjusted, facing the dilemma of industrial transformation, employment opportunities were reduced, and a large number of laborers began to outflow.
As for the short-term population return in Northeast China in 2023 years, Chen Yao said that this is the return of people who went out under the influence of a series of economic stimulus and subsidy policies during the rapid economic recovery period. However, the local economic environment has not fundamentally changed, resulting in reshoring being only a "flash in the pan" in a special context.
近年来，有关东北三省人口外流的讨论和关注很多。根据七人普数据，东北三省共流出821万人——其中，辽宁187万人、吉林241万人、黑龙江393万人。
这显然不是一个小数字。不过，同期河南流出1610万人、安徽流出1152万人、四川流出1035万人，均远超东北三省。
In fact, in addition to population outflow, low fertility and aging are also the key reasons for the population dilemma in Northeast China.
Compared with the whole country, Northeast China has long faced the problems of population aging and low fertility. The results of the seven-person census show that all 36 cities in the three northeastern provinces have entered the stage of deep aging.
Against this backdrop, the natural population growth rate of the three northeastern provinces has further declined in recent years.
The data shows that before 48 years, the natural population growth rate of the three northeastern provinces was around -0‰. However, since the beginning of 0, the negative growth trend of the natural population growth rate has been intensifying, and by 0, the natural population growth rate of the three northeastern provinces has dropped to below -0‰, far lower than the national average of -0.0‰.
From the perspective of the structure of population decline in Northeast China, the impact of the continuous negative growth rate of natural population growth is also expanding.
2015年，东北整体人口自然增长刚刚转负时，当年东北减少的128.4万人中，绝大多数是人口净流出（125.5万人）造成的。但到2022年，东北减少85.7万人，人口自然减少的数量（48.4万人）首次超过了人口净流出的数量（37.3万人）。
"The population structure problem in Northeast China is more prominent, and the corresponding provinces have a low child dependency ratio and a high elderly dependency ratio, and there will be a long period of population burden in the future." Li Enping, a researcher at the Institute of Urban Development and Environment of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, once pointed out that from the perspective of population structure, there are problems such as serious aging and insufficient fertility in Northeast China, and it will take a long time for the population to return and increase the fertility rate.
Yang Chenggang, vice president of the Chinese Population Association and professor of the Institute of Social Development of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, said to the theory of urban evolution that the negative population growth trend in the northeast is not only due to the impact of aging, but also caused by the migration of more people of childbearing age. Although there is no sign of a reversal in the short term in terms of demographic structure, it cannot be ruled out that in the new environment, Northeast China will regain industrial development opportunities, thereby attracting young people to return and promoting population growth.
"In the northeast and other northern regions, the key to getting out of the population dilemma is economic revitalization." Chen Yao said that the Northeast should eliminate the problem of singleness and aging of the industrial structure.
Specifically, it is necessary to cultivate emerging industries, starting from the relatively basic new energy, new materials, and high-end equipment manufacturing in Northeast China. At the same time, seize the future industrial opportunities, such as "Harbin Institute of Technology Robotics Research Institute, is one of the earliest research units to carry out robot technology in China." There are advantages in developing embodied intelligence".
In addition, the demand for traditional industries in Northeast China is still there, and in Chen Yao's view, the traditional industries should be digitally intelligent and green in accordance with the new market development trend.
Regional population wrestling, in the final analysis, is a competition between central cities.
In recent years, the collective rise of strong provincial capitals in the central and western regions has effectively driven regional population growth. 2024 years,The first city in the country with the largest population growth, fell in Guiyang, the capital of the central and western provinces. In addition to Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other economically strong cities in the east, the rest of the cities with the highest population growth also include Hefei, Changsha, Nanchang and other provincial capitals in the central and western regions.
It is particularly worth mentioning that 2024 years,Hefei常住人口增长14.9万人，人口规模首次突破千万大关，成为新晋千万人口城市。
反观东北，自2021年哈尔滨常住人口跌破千万后，东北便再无千万人口大市。不仅如此，自2021年起，哈尔滨人口已连续三年负增长，截至2023年末仅977.6万人。
大连近年保持微弱的人口增长趋势，现有人口规模刚刚超过750万人，距离千万着实过于遥远。
真正有希望竞逐“下一座千万人口大市”的种子选手，也就只剩沈阳和长春两座城市。
截至2023年末，沈阳常住人口920.4 万人，比上年增加5.7万人。同期，长春常住人口规模910.2万人，比上年新增3.7万人。这样的增量成绩，在全国省会城市中并不突出。
此前，沈阳和长春已双双喊出要冲击“千万人口”的目标，并均将时间节点定在2025年——
《沈阳建设国家中心城市行动纲要》提出，到2025年，经济总量突破1万亿元，人口规模突破1000万人。
长春也提出，到2025年，“把长春建设成为常住人口超1000万、经济总量迈向万亿的特大型现代化城市”。
At present, it is almost impossible for the two cities to successfully cross the line in 2025 years.
The population agglomeration capacity of core cities is not strong, which affects regional population growth.In the eyes of the outside world, the way to break the situation in the Northeast is, on the one hand, to start with policies and provide more fertility support;On the other hand, it is to attract the inflow of young people.
In terms of actively providing childbirth support, not long ago, the Liaoning Provincial Development and Reform Commission solicited public opinions on the "Several Measures to Vigorously Boost Consumption in Liaoning Province (Draft for Comments)", which proposed to strengthen the protection of childbirth and parenting and implement the childcare subsidy system.
In terms of attracting the inflow of young people, in Chen Yao's view, on the whole, the four central cities in Northeast China have retreated in the national city rankings in recent years, and there is an urgent need to improve the energy level of the cities. "In addition to providing high-end manufacturing and modern service industries, the most important function of the central city is cultural creativity. These four cities used to be famous historical and cultural cities, but in recent years, they have not done enough in terms of cultural tourism attraction. ”
Chen Yao further explained that in order for today's cities to maintain long-term social influence and attention, they need to continue to innovate, especially to cater to the cultural needs of young people. "For example, Changsha relies on a cup of tea to let young people line up to check in, Fat Dong came to promote Yushang culture and bring fire to Xuchang, and the magic boy Nezha let everyone know Chengdu's animation industry again." In this regard, Northeast cities should learn from other cities and further release their own advantages and characteristics.
"The demographic phenomenon in the Northeast is very representative, especially in the north, and there are many similar situations in Tianjin, Shandong and other provinces and cities." Chen Yao particularly emphasized that for the Northeast itself, what should be done is to take advantage of the trend and do a good job in industrial development and social governance.
National Business Daily